Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 3.364890 3.934395 4.565400 5.315632 6.182563 7.152136 8.318030
2025-11-23 2.418725 3.164309 4.080668 5.286298 6.827161 8.726697 11.242137
2025-11-30 1.938382 2.782691 3.912709 5.527449 7.766203 10.749830 15.015594
2025-12-07 1.544493 2.401595 3.635532 5.527007 8.335846 12.331726 18.421014
2025-12-14 1.258045 2.099072 3.390005 5.494028 8.810382 13.801464 21.835211
2025-12-21 1.053665 1.873250 3.205672 5.499453 9.311147 15.339731 25.521187
2025-12-28 0.972869 1.829138 3.293257 5.937280 10.537749 18.133460 31.504421
2026-01-04 0.855730 1.697262 3.207031 6.060071 11.244474 20.157268 36.467813
2026-01-11 0.761152 1.587321 3.137655 6.193828 11.975497 22.293040 41.861307
2026-01-18 0.669092 1.464192 3.021813 6.218678 12.502302 24.118736 46.906120
2026-01-25 0.581074 1.332365 2.866649 6.140295 12.815330 25.579114 51.435081
2026-02-01 0.486194 1.168011 2.619240 5.837258 12.641137 26.091091 54.210700
2026-02-08 0.419419 1.055679 2.466981 5.718549 12.844590 27.401055 58.793810
2026-02-15 0.366971 0.966776 2.351850 5.663951 13.179447 29.025286 64.235782
2026-02-22 0.342105 0.939731 2.371450 5.913077 14.206979 32.202132 73.281955
2026-03-01 0.304688 0.873453 2.288012 5.909671 14.666178 34.222122 80.093898
2026-03-08 0.270532 0.808726 2.197214 5.873499 15.042475 36.101598 86.814371
2026-03-15 0.242908 0.756160 2.127901 5.878925 15.516802 38.253443 94.394054
2026-03-22 0.238799 0.769790 2.232712 6.345331 17.184644 43.346302 109.335736
2026-03-29 0.220637 0.738281 2.211347 6.476106 18.023713 46.576126 120.234535
2026-04-05 0.204707 0.710344 2.195232 6.618585 18.912077 50.024987 132.045973
2026-04-12 0.186432 0.671157 2.140525 6.645052 19.496021 52.786812 142.468350
2026-04-19 0.166812 0.623328 2.052295 6.561549 19.768956 54.792496 151.207523